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	<title>Oil Prices Today &#187; Crude Oil Price Forecasting</title>
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		<title>Crude Oil Futures Up But Sentiment Down</title>
		<link>http://oilpricestoday.org/oil-discussion/crude-oil-futures-up-but-sentiment-down/</link>
		<comments>http://oilpricestoday.org/oil-discussion/crude-oil-futures-up-but-sentiment-down/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 05 Jul 2010 14:22:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Oil Prices Today</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Crude Oil Price Forecasting]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://oilpricestoday.org/oil-discussion/?p=32</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Crude oil futures rose in Asia Monday, but sentiment remained weak due to ongoing doubts about the strength of the U.S. and Chinese economies. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in August traded at $72.62 a barrel at 0604 GMT, up $0.48 in the Globex electronic session. Trading volumes]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div style="text-align:center;width:100%;margin:10px 0px 10px 0px;"><div style="margin:auto;"><script type="text/javascript"><!--
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</script></div></div><div style="width:100%;min-width:100%;"><div style="text-align:center;width:100%;margin:0 0 0 0;"><div style="margin:auto;"><img border="0" src="http://oilpricestoday.org/images/gas.png" width="475" height="47"></div></div><div style="width:100%;min-width:100%;"><p><a title="crude oil futures" href="http://www.oilpricestoday.org/futures/">Crude oil futures</a> rose in Asia Monday, but sentiment remained weak  due to ongoing doubts about the strength of the U.S. and Chinese  economies.</p>
<p>On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet  crude futures for delivery in August traded at $72.62 a barrel at 0604  GMT, up $0.48 in the Globex electronic session. Trading volumes were  thin as the U.S. market will be closed Monday for a public holiday.</p>
<p>August Brent crude on London&#8217;s ICE Futures exchange rose $0.51 to  $72.16 a barrel.</p>
<p>Nymex crude&#8217;s correction was expected after  settling lower for the past five consecutive sessions in the U.S. Last  week&#8217;s 8.5% decline by the front-month contract was the worst since  early May.</p>
<p>However, many analysts said any respite was likely  to be temporary, as technical charts show Nymex crude is likely to  consolidate with a downward bias to at least a three-week low of $71.62 a  barrel.</p>
<p>Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. expects  the front-month Nymex contract to trade in a range of $65-$75 a barrel  throughout July, as markets become more sensitive to any tightening in  Chinese monetary policy and European sovereign debt worries.</p>
<p>&#8220;We think the balance of crude oil price risks appears skewed towards  the downside, as negative demand shocks from a sluggish economic  recovery outweigh negative supply surprises such as the inconclusive  six-month drilling ban and potential hurricane disruptions&#8221; in the Gulf  of Mexico, ANZ said.</p>
<p>Concerns are also now coming to a head  that Iranian crude left in floating storage could be sold too quickly,  adding to the pressure on benchmark oil prices, ANZ added.</p>
<p>David Moore, chief commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of  Australia, said the oil price probably now embodies more conservative  assumptions on a U.S. economic recovery after data last week showed U.S.  consumer confidence falling in June and the country&#8217;s gauges of  manufacturing activity tending toward the soft side.</p>
<p>Compounding this were U.S. jobs numbers Friday, where nonfarm payrolls  fell by 125,000 in June, partly due to the winding down of 225,000  temporary census jobs. Private businesses created 83,000 jobs, less than  many economists expected.</p>
<p>Barclays Capital became the latest  bank to shave its medium-term oil price forecasts as a result of the  slow pace of the global economic recovery, saying it now expects Nymex  crude to average $87 in the fourth quarter, or $5 below its previous  outlook.</p>
<p>As risk aversion grows in the market, so investors are  likely to move their assets away from commodities and into safe havens  such as the U.S. dollar. Monday, the euro was at $1.2557 against the  U.S. dollar, compared with $1.2543 in late New York trade Friday.</p>
<p>But not everyone in the market is convinced that the crude price  decline has much further to go.</p>
<p>In a note Monday, Goldman Sachs  said the economic outlook embedded in Nymex crude oil prices and  speculative positions remain too pessimistic.</p>
<p>Although it has  cut its forecast for China&#8217;s 2010 gross domestic product to 10.1% from  11.4%, this represents a reduction of just 0.1% in its world economic  growth forecast.</p>
<p>&#8220;The problem with Chinese oil demand is one of  too much demand rather than too little. Despite the recent signs of a  slowdown in (global) economic growth, oil demand in both the United  States and China remains robust, and continues to surprise to the upside  relative to our forecasts,&#8221; Goldman said.</p>
<p>At 0604 GMT, oil  product futures were up.</p>
<p>Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock  for August&#8211;the benchmark gasoline contract&#8211;rose 142 points to $1.9919  a gallon, while August heating oil traded at $1.9300, 145 points  higher.</p>
<p>ICE gasoil for July changed hands at $616.50 a metric  ton, up $2.75 from Friday&#8217;s settlement.</p>
<pre></pre>
<p><em>-By David  Winning, Dow Jones Newswires; +61-2-82724688; david.winning@dowjones.com</em></p>
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		<title>Oil Prices On The Rise With Demand From Emerging Countries</title>
		<link>http://oilpricestoday.org/oil-discussion/oil-prices-on-the-rise/</link>
		<comments>http://oilpricestoday.org/oil-discussion/oil-prices-on-the-rise/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Jun 2010 16:54:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Oil Prices Today</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://oilpricestoday.org/oil-discussion/?p=28</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Oil prices are on the rise as demand for oil is steadily increasing and there is not any halt in sight. Demand for oil is increasing in China, India and other emerging economies. The International Energy Agency is predicting that global oil use will grow by 1.8% to 85.5m barrels a day in 2010. Analysts]]></description>
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<p><strong>Oil prices</strong> are on the rise as demand for oil is steadily increasing and  there is not any halt in sight. Demand for oil is increasing in China,  India and other emerging economies.</p>
<p>The <strong>International Energy  Agency</strong> is predicting that global oil use will grow by 1.8% to 85.5m  barrels a day in 2010. Analysts are anticipating a rise in the <a title="price of oil" href="http://oilpricestoday.org/">price of  oil</a> in the $85-$95 a barrel range in the second part of 2010. This rise  in price is a 31% increase than originally estimated.</p>
<p>With China  reporting expected growth of around 8%, oil prices may skyrocket as  China is the largest consumer of oil after the U.S. As China begins to  consume even more, the demand for oil will rise and as China accounts  for about one-third of global oil demand growth, and that demand is not  expected to slow.</p>
<p>Due to growing consumption in China, India and  Brazil the predicted global demand is set to accelerate to 86.4 million  barrels a day, up from 84.9mb/day in 2009. With dwindling production in  the world&#8217;s biggest oilfields, it is predicted that supply will fail to  meet demand in 2010. This lack of supply will likely boost oil to  $90/barrel this year and $110 in 2011.</p>
<p>As the population and  economy in not only the U.S., but in emerging nations such as China and  India continues to grow, the consensus among most analysts and agencies  such as the IEA is that <a title="oil consumption" href="http://oilpricestoday.org/oil-discussion/">oil consumption</a> will rise this year and as the  demand increases, prices will soar as supply is limited.</p>
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		<title>Crude Oil Price Forecast Using Technical Analysis</title>
		<link>http://oilpricestoday.org/oil-discussion/crude-oil-price-forecast-using-technical-analysis/</link>
		<comments>http://oilpricestoday.org/oil-discussion/crude-oil-price-forecast-using-technical-analysis/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Jun 2010 17:32:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Oil Prices Today</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://oilpricestoday.org/oil-discussion/?p=10</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There can be little question that energy costs have profound effects on all areas of the economy. Leading up to the Market top and subsequent crash in 2008, oil prices rose to unprecedented levels. It could be said that rising energy costs has as profound an impact on the economy as the credit default swap]]></description>
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<p>There can be little question that energy costs have profound  effects on all areas of the economy. Leading up to the Market top and  subsequent crash in 2008, <strong>oil prices</strong> rose to unprecedented levels. It  could be said that rising energy costs has as profound an impact on the  economy as the credit default swap scandal.</p>
<p>That said, it would  make sense to track and forecast <a title="crude oil prices" href="http://www.oilpricestoday.org/crude/">crude oil prices</a> as part of your high  level market analysis process. Fortunately, it is perfect legitimate and  effective to apply technical analysis techniques to oil prices, making  it possible for traders to determine near term price movements in crude.</p>
<p>Using  charting software such as stockcharts.com, traders can analyze chart  patterns and apply technical indicators to predict the future direction  and degree of movement. I recommend utilizing Monthly charts for  determining the overall trend of crude, and weekly charts for examining  chart patterns and daily charts for confirming pattern breakouts using  technical analysis indicators.</p>
<p>One aspect of forecasting oil  prices is that crude oil tends to trend, making it very easy to trade  profitably. For instance, crude oil has been in a steady uptrend,  creating a positive slopped support trendline at points in July, late  September, and early December. This is a valid and strong trendline  which suggest that crude will continue to rise.</p>
<p>Crude also tends  to trade in channels and triangles. A break above or below these pattern  lines suggests a large move is coming in crude. As of the writing of  this article, crude oil recently crossed above its&#8217; 200 day exponential  moving average, as well as broke out of the topside of a symmetrical  continuation triangle. With little resistance overhead, it is quite  reasonable that crude oil will continue to rise from it&#8217;s current price  of $83 / barrel, to over $96 per barrel.</p>
<p>As a technical trader, I  usually don&#8217;t spend much time talking about market fundamentals.  However, there are some underlying forces that can never be ignored when  doing market forecasts. Clearly the price of crude oil has had a  profound effect on the stock market over the past 5 years.</p>
<p>You can  clearly see that $70 crude oil caused the markets to slow down,  eventually creating the tell tale double top. Once crude crossed $90 per  barrel, the S&amp;P 500 crashed through the 1400 support level, and the  previous bull market which lasted nearly 6 years came to a screeching  halt. Will it happen again? It&#8217;s quite possible.</p>
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