Crude Oil Price Forecasting

Crude oil futures rose in Asia Monday, but sentiment remained weak due to ongoing doubts about the strength of the U.S. and Chinese economies.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in August traded at $72.62 a barrel at 0604 GMT, up $0.48 in the Globex electronic session. Trading volumes were thin as the U.S. market will be closed Monday for a public holiday.

August Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange rose $0.51 to $72.16 a barrel.

Nymex crude’s correction was expected after settling lower for the past five consecutive sessions in the U.S. Last week’s 8.5% decline by the front-month contract was the worst since early May.

However, many analysts said any respite was likely to be temporary, as technical charts show Nymex crude is likely to consolidate with a downward bias to at least a three-week low of $71.62 a barrel.

Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. expects the front-month Nymex contract to trade in a range of $65-$75 a barrel throughout July, as markets become more sensitive to any tightening in Chinese monetary policy and European sovereign debt worries.

“We think the balance of crude oil price risks appears skewed towards the downside, as negative demand shocks from a sluggish economic recovery outweigh negative supply surprises such as the inconclusive six-month drilling ban and potential hurricane disruptions” in the Gulf of Mexico, ANZ said.

Concerns are also now coming to a head that Iranian crude left in floating storage could be sold too quickly, adding to the pressure on benchmark oil prices, ANZ added.

David Moore, chief commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said the oil price probably now embodies more conservative assumptions on a U.S. economic recovery after data last week showed U.S. consumer confidence falling in June and the country’s gauges of manufacturing activity tending toward the soft side.

Compounding this were U.S. jobs numbers Friday, where nonfarm payrolls fell by 125,000 in June, partly due to the winding down of 225,000 temporary census jobs. Private businesses created 83,000 jobs, less than many economists expected.

Barclays Capital became the latest bank to shave its medium-term oil price forecasts as a result of the slow pace of the global economic recovery, saying it now expects Nymex crude to average $87 in the fourth quarter, or $5 below its previous outlook.

As risk aversion grows in the market, so investors are likely to move their assets away from commodities and into safe havens such as the U.S. dollar. Monday, the euro was at $1.2557 against the U.S. dollar, compared with $1.2543 in late New York trade Friday.

But not everyone in the market is convinced that the crude price decline has much further to go.

In a note Monday, Goldman Sachs said the economic outlook embedded in Nymex crude oil prices and speculative positions remain too pessimistic.

Although it has cut its forecast for China’s 2010 gross domestic product to 10.1% from 11.4%, this represents a reduction of just 0.1% in its world economic growth forecast.

“The problem with Chinese oil demand is one of too much demand rather than too little. Despite the recent signs of a slowdown in (global) economic growth, oil demand in both the United States and China remains robust, and continues to surprise to the upside relative to our forecasts,” Goldman said.

At 0604 GMT, oil product futures were up.

Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for August–the benchmark gasoline contract–rose 142 points to $1.9919 a gallon, while August heating oil traded at $1.9300, 145 points higher.

ICE gasoil for July changed hands at $616.50 a metric ton, up $2.75 from Friday’s settlement.

-By David Winning, Dow Jones Newswires; +61-2-82724688; david.winning@dowjones.com